U.S TRADE SHIFTS IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES

CHAPTER 1

Introduction

The trade analysts of the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) routinely monitor trade developments in the services sector and in all agricultural and manufactured commodities. Trade monitoring at the sector- and commodity-specific levels is a facet of the research and analysis undertaken by the Office of Industries in conjunction with its responsibilities to provide advice and technical information on industry and trade issues. Trade monitoring enables the Commission to gain advance information on and address the issues of concern in the exercise of its various roles under U.S. trade statutes. These roles include determining whether U.S. industries are materially injured by unfair imports, conducting studies on the international competitiveness of U.S. industries, and advising the President and the Congress on the likely effects of trade-policy changes and proposals. This report, prepared annually, provides a brief analysis of significant trade shifts at the services and merchandise sector level, on a bilateral basis, and at a detailed commodity level. This year, the report also includes a baseline examination of trade and factors affecting historical trends in key U.S. industries during a 13-year period, 1980-93.

Chapter 2 of the report summarizes the services and the U.S. industrial/ agricultural trade shifts that occurred in 1993. Highlights of trade shifts that occurred in 1993 relative to 1992 are also presented in this chapter. For the first time, based on limited data, these highlights include information showing the trade balance for the U.S. service sector as a whole and by selected service industry accounts, the composition of cross-border services trade, recent data on affiliates' sales, and the U.S. surplus on service accounts with select trading partners. This additional analysis reflects continuing efforts by the U.S. Department of Commerce to expand and refine its base of statistical information about the service sector. As new trade information becomes available on the U.S. service sector, the Commmission plans to expand, as appropriate, the U.S. services trade performance section of this report. The more comprehensive coverage of the merchandise sectors include data showing import, export, and trade balance shifts by major commodity sectors and shifts in trade with major U.S. trading partners. In addition, a tabular summary details the most significant shifts that occurred within each of the major industrial and agricultural sectors. Last, significant bilateral shifts in merchandise trade are discussed.

Chapter 3 provides a long-range assessment of common factors affecting trends in selected industry sectors using the Commission's historical trade monitoring database. Industries examined are those for which comparable data exist during 1980-93 and which represent a significant share of total U.S. import or export trade or depict important global trade developments.

Chapters 4 through 11 address specific industrial and agricultural sectors, providing an overview and commodity-specific analyses. Following each sector analysis is a statistical table that summarizes trade for the major commodity groups within the sector.

The report includes two appendixes. Appendix A contains a listing of the specific industrial and agricultural commodity groups that the Commission monitors in this report. Appendix B provides estimated data for 1989-93 on domestic consumption, production, employment, trade, and import penetration for the nearly 300 commodity groups covered in this report. These data, based on primary and secondary sources, including discussions with various government and industry contacts, have been estimated by the Commission's international trade analysts. The estimated data are subject to change either from future secondary sources or from the detailed surveys the Commission often conducts in the course of statutory investigations or other work.